The TDP narrative is that development has taken a backseat, with welfare schemes consuming a large portion of the state’s revenue.
One could call it a fight between welfare scheme beneficiaries (essentially the poor) and the rest. Or, as incumbent chief minister YS Jagan Mohan Reddy brands it, a class war—poor vs rich, in typical Marxian perspective.
Another way to look at it is the urban vs rural divide.
From whichever prism one would like to gauge the mood, there will be a no-holds-barred fight between Jagan Mohan Reddy’s YSR Congress and Chandrababu Naidu’s Telugu Desam (in alliance with the BJP and Jana Sena of actor Pawan Kalyan) in the 13 May simultaneous election to the Andhra Pradesh Assembly and Lok Sabha.
If reports emanating from the ground are an indication, there are no neutral voters in Andhra Pradesh. In the battle of Kurukhesthra, voters are split between those backing Jagan Mohan Reddy and those not wanting him to return. Chandrababu and allies are indirect beneficiaries, as no one else is in the fray.
Leadership vs change
In 2019, Jagan received a massive mandate, winning 151 out of 175 Assembly seats and drawing support from almost all sections and communities that were majorly disappointed with Naidu. “We need a change,” was the narrative then, different from “the state needs an experienced leader” in 2014 when united Andhra Pradesh was divided. This time round, it’s simply pro-Jagan vs anti-Jagan.
Of Jagan Mohan Reddy’s nearly 30 welfare schemes under the Direct Benefit Transfer (DBT) program, the primary ones are pensions for the old, widows, and disabled (₹3000 per month) and Amma Vodi, under which an annual assistance of ₹14,000 is given to every mother sending her child to school. An estimated Rs 2.7 lakh crore has been disbursed under DBT in the last five years.
Venkayamma, an elderly Dalit woman from the Godavari districts, receives a monthly pension delivered to her doorstep by a village volunteer. “I have not been facing any hassle for five years. There is no need for me to go to the bank. This was not the case before,” she says.
The volunteer scheme
The government has appointed thousands of such volunteers who ensure that the identified beneficiaries receive assistance under various schemes in the first week of every month.
Chandrababu and Pawan Kalyan attacked the volunteer system recently, likening them to a private army, only to retract following severe backlash and sensing the goodwill they enjoy.
The functioning of schools and hospitals has, no doubt, improved. School-going kids now learn English even in government schools and hospitals have adequate infra and medicine. Many would recall that during Covid-19, they received the best possible assistance from the government.
However, did the transfer of such benefits help Jagan overcome the “caste factor,” a dominant issue in Andhra elections for a long time? Perhaps yes, in a small measure, but not to the extent that it could override caste considerations.
For example, under Amma Vodi, the beneficiaries from backward castes (BCs) constitute close to 20 lakh, SCs (8.84 lakh), STs (2.86), Minorities (3.06), Kapus (4.04), and Others (5.99). Likewise, 30 lakh BCs benefit from the pension scheme. SCs number 12 lakh, STs (3.96), Minorities (3.49), Kapus (7.45) and Others (8.75).
Shortage of local jobs
Vijayasree from Tanuku, who earns a living from tailoring, received assistance under Amma Vodi and ₹18,500 under YSR Cheyutha (a scheme for self-employed). Yet, she is unhappy with the lack of employment opportunities at the local level, which she believes has not helped increase her revenue from her tailoring business as locals do not have disposable income.
Forty-five-year-old Parvati, from a village near Rajahmundry town, moved to Hyderabad to work as a full-time assistant at the house of an entrepreneur. She earns ₹20,000 a month with her needs, including food taken care of. A widow, she receives a pension, and her two children stay with the grandmother back home. A Kapu by birth (who converted to Christianity later), she doesn’t want to vote for Jagan. “If only there were employment opportunities near my home, there was no need for me to travel as far as Hyderabad, leaving behind my children,” she complains.
Parvati and lakhs of Andhra citizens who settled in Hyderabad are travelling home by specially arranged buses to vote. No one residing outside Andhra Pradesh, including those abroad, wants to give up their voting rights. The battle is intense.
Welfare or development
This is a narrative that the TDP has built over time. Development –roads, infrastructure, setting up of new industries etc, has taken a backseat, with welfare schemes consuming a large portion of the state’s revenue, leaving little or nothing for any other program. Add to this a rise in prices of liquor, power and sand used for construction.
Construction workers say they suffered because of a sharp decline in building activity. “Electricity bills have doubled compared to 2019. I get my pension, but Jagan has not paid enough attention to addressing other issues faced by non-Dalit communities,” rues Nagamani, a Vysya from the port town of Kakinada.
To put it in perspective, a majority of Dalits, STs, Muslims (TDP aligning with BJP being the reason) and Reddys are mostly with Jagan. Ranged on the other side are Kammas (they see Telugu Desam as their symbol), upper castes such as Brahmins, Vysyas and Kapus. Backward Classes, considered the backbone of TDP, are divided, but the Opposition alliance seemingly has an edge insofar as their support is concerned. Cutting across caste lines, the urban and educated voters, including employees and teachers, also appear to be sailing against Jagan.
Anti-incumbency
The “excesses” committed by some of his ministers and legislators habituated to taking over lands and businesses of rivals, particularly in the Rayalaseema region, also appear to be going against Jagan.
Such actions rarely remain secret and create a sense of “anarchy,” however real or unreal. Jagan has dropped 25 percent of sitting legislators and more than 50 percent of MPs based on multiple surveys. But will it help beat the anti-incumbency they caused? That is a moot question.
When the employees, teachers, and police personnel on election duty cast postal ballots a few days ago, many reportedly refused money from candidates of the Opposition alliance, saying, “We made up our mind. You don’t have to bribe us.” Also, unlike in previous elections, almost everyone cast their vote, even if it meant waiting in the queue to secure the postal ballot after due verification. Does it throw up any hints? Well, it’s anybody’s guess. #hydnews #khabarlive
