It’s time to think wisely and solid strategies has to be made to avoid election hassles in future. Nowadays, the BJP and Congress are facing acute challenges within the parties. When BJP registered a massive win not many in intellectual circles are able to digest the ‘thumping majority’ win by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the five-state election touted as ‘semi-final’ to the 2024 General Election.
Most of the well- educated, so-called secularists are puzzled to see huge victories the BJP registered in Uttar Pradesh. Interestingly, the BJP has swept all eight seats in Lakhimpur Kheri, which was the centre of fury and outrage in October after four famers were run over by a car allegedly driven by Union Minister Ajay Mishra Teni’s son, Ashish Mishra. The eight seats in Lakhimpur Kheri are Palia, Nighasan, Gola Gokarnath, Sri Nagar, Dhaurahra, Lakhimpur, Kasta, and Mohammadi.
The horrific incident, in which three BJP workers and a journalist also died, triggered furious criticism of the Yogi Adityanath government and allegations that the ruling BJP was going soft on a murder accused because of his father’s position. No one in the opposition camp could understand the logic behind huge voting by women particularly Muslim women voting en masse to BJP. Wherever women voters are high compared to male voters, BJP registered impressive gains. Even the districts with sizeable population of Jats, who were said to be angry with BJP for bringing farm laws, yielded positive results to the Yogi Adityanath-led BJP government.
Now political circles are busy to find out whether this result would repeat in the 2024 General Election in favour of BJP. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, well-versed in ‘mind games’, has already started saying that the present win is a clear sign of what is going to happen in 2024. Although poll strategist Prashant Kishor has some doubts over the PM’s claims and West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee ruled out any such eventuality in 2024, most of the political parties in the country have started calculations about the 2024 polls.
Is it clear that the BJP has edge and it appears that the Congress would soon become extinct. Whether Aam Aadmi Party will replace the Congress or a front floated by the regional parties will take the charge against the BJP? These are questions in the minds of political parties.
Let explain the arithmetic of Indian polls. Firstly, never in the past, states-level politics have influenced the results of the Lok Sabha election. Secondly, the results declared on March 10 are indicating increased anti-incumbency for BJP. It has lost heavily in almost all states when compared to its 2019 performance.
That does not mean that it has no chance of returning power, but it is an uphill task for the BJP to recreate the same magic in 2024. States like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Rajasthan and Punjab will see a major decline in the seats for BJP in 2024. With regard to south India, BJP has negligent presence in most of the states and the saffron party has to depend on its regional allies who will be willing to give only single-digit seats in the election.
Another important aspect is while BJP is fast losing its friends, regional parties are increasingly moving away from the BJP. This is a danger bell and BJP needs to take note of it. Although regional parties have started feeling suffocated under Modi’s rule, they are very much sure that they cannot take on the mighty BJP alone and are waiting for an opportunity.
Even more interesting thing that came out of the 5-state polls result is that people are also waiting for a strong alternative. If they really believe in a party, they are ready to vote in favour of that party. It was indicated in the Assembly elections in Punjab, where political giants bite the dust in the AAP’ revolution.
Virtually decimated in the Assembly elections, the Congress now faces a dual challenge: an existential crisis and retaining its position as the Leader of the Opposition camp. Now the road to the 2024 polls for the Congress is now left in power only in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh on its own and is a junior player in the coalition governments in Maharashtra and Jharkhand. The Congress’ electoral drubbing has also had ripples in the opposition ranks.
Previously the Congress had been clinging to the position of the Leader of the Opposition camp; now, it finds itself facing threats from parties such as the AAP and the Trinamool Congress, which are likely to become more assertive going forward.
Murmurs of discontent and talk of “change” have already begun in the Congress camp with some of the G-23 leaders, who had ‘daringly’ written to party chief Sonia Gandhi seeking an organisational overhaul, voicing concerns over the massive electoral defeat.
Poor poll strategies like in Goa, where the Congress did not align with others and went alone hampering opposition unity and dividing votes, have cost the Congress and opposition parties heavily.
It is time for the Congress to realise that either it must strengthen itself as an organisation to have that place in the Opposition or step back and support those parties which have the capacity to be able to pull off victories in an election. If the Congress fails to understand its situation, not much time is left to see ‘Congress-mukt Bharat’. #KhabarLive #hydnews
